Wednesday, 18 April 2007

YesBut anyone but Brown

When John Smith suddenly died in May 1994, Gordon Brown wanted to succeed him as leader of the Labour Party. But his good friend Tony Blair persuaded him that the Labour Party would have more chance of beating the Conservative Party if Blair became the leader. Brown claims a deal was struck, which in return for Brown's support Blair would resign as Prime Minister during a Labour Governments (one rumour says first while another rumour says second) term of office. Ever since the Labour Party won the 1997 General Election Gordon Brown has been brooding and seething wanting Blair to resign and allow himself to fulfil his destiny of becoming Prime Minister.

As we approach the tenth anniversary of Labours victory on 1st May, Blair is finally on the point of resigning. At last Brown could drop his sullen look and start to relax. But will at the last minute, the prize he has been waiting for be snatched from his grasp?

For the truth is Brown is not a winner. More importantly Labour Members of Parliament know he is not a winner- and to hold on to their own jobs at the next General Election, they need a Leader who can defeat David Cameron and the Conservative Party.

For months the Blairite faction of the Labour Party has been looking for an ABG (anyone but Gordon) candidate. But there isn’t an obvious strong candidate. So they were having to content themselves with Brown taking over from Blair during the summer. But, and there are lots of buts in this story, questions are now being asked over Browns competency as Chancellor of the Exchequer – is he responsible for the shortfall in funds in pension schemes? did he sell off half of the UK Gold Reserves cheaply? The image of the sound prudent “Iron Chancellor” is starting to crumble. And Labour Party MPs are starting to panic.

Is the young David Miliband, Secretary of State for Environment, Food & Rural Affairs the answer to their prays? Each night Labour MPs pray "please God anyone but Gordon".

My prediction:

  • Gordon Brown will become leader of the Labour Party and Prime Minister.
  • Due to the British “First past the Post” voting system and the anomalies in the way constituency boundaries are drawn up, the Conservative Party require far more than Labour of the popular vote to win a majority of seats. Consequently Labour will win the largest number of seats at the next General Election, but they might not get an overall majority. The Conservative Party will then win following General Election.


Helena said...

"Due to the British “First past the Post” voting system and the anomalies in the way constituency boundaries are drawn up, the Conservative Party require far more than Labour of the popular vote to win a majority of seats."

Is this true???
This disgusting! So much for democracy...

I heard that Labour only got 22% of the vote last time, and that it was only the labour support in Scotland that really got them in.

I don't think I could stomach another labour term.... I can't believe what they have done to education. My partner has just resigned his teaching post a few weeks ago because of their micro-management of the job.

And oh, don't get me going on Health!

The thing that puts most people off politics, I think, is the spin, and the way none of them can answer a straight question with a straight answer. It comes over as arrogance, a refusal to accept that they are answerable to us. Least, that's what puts ME off...


Knew I could always come here for a good rant!

YesBut said...

Hi Helena
An indication of the anomalies of the British system.

In 1987 the SDP- Liberal Alliance had 22.6% share of the vote and won 22 seats. In 1997 the Liberal Democrats had 16.8% of the votes and won 46 seats.

You don’t want to get going about the NHS. I know how you feel, I have been waiting to have an hospital appointment since February, finally I received a letter giving an appointment for mid May, today I have had another letter postponing the appointment to mid June.

Of course they never answer questions. They have their message of the day, irrespective what they are asked, the answer “the message for the day”.

Hope the rant made you feel better. Please make yourself at home any time you want to get a good Grrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr.