YesBut anyone but Brown

When John Smith suddenly died in May 1994, Gordon Brown wanted to succeed him as leader of the Labour Party. But his good friend Tony Blair persuaded him that the Labour Party would have more chance of beating the Conservative Party if Blair became the leader. Brown claims a deal was struck, which in return for Brown's support Blair would resign as Prime Minister during a Labour Governments (one rumour says first while another rumour says second) term of office. Ever since the Labour Party won the 1997 General Election Gordon Brown has been brooding and seething wanting Blair to resign and allow himself to fulfil his destiny of becoming Prime Minister.

As we approach the tenth anniversary of Labours victory on 1st May, Blair is finally on the point of resigning. At last Brown could drop his sullen look and start to relax. But will at the last minute, the prize he has been waiting for be snatched from his grasp?

For the truth is Brown is not a winner. More importantly Labour Members of Parliament know he is not a winner- and to hold on to their own jobs at the next General Election, they need a Leader who can defeat David Cameron and the Conservative Party.

For months the Blairite faction of the Labour Party has been looking for an ABG (anyone but Gordon) candidate. But there isn’t an obvious strong candidate. So they were having to content themselves with Brown taking over from Blair during the summer. But, and there are lots of buts in this story, questions are now being asked over Browns competency as Chancellor of the Exchequer – is he responsible for the shortfall in funds in pension schemes? did he sell off half of the UK Gold Reserves cheaply? The image of the sound prudent “Iron Chancellor” is starting to crumble. And Labour Party MPs are starting to panic.

Is the young David Miliband, Secretary of State for Environment, Food & Rural Affairs the answer to their prays? Each night Labour MPs pray "please God anyone but Gordon".


My prediction:

• Gordon Brown will become leader of the Labour Party and Prime Minister.
• Due to the British “First past the Post” voting system and the anomalies in the way constituency boundaries are drawn up, the Conservative Party require far more than Labour of the popular vote to win a majority of seats. Consequently Labour will win the largest number of seats at the next General Election, but they might not get an overall majority. The Conservative Party will then win following General Election.