YesBut anyone but Brown

When John Smith suddenly died in May 1994, Gordon Brown wanted to succeed him as leader of the Labour Party. But his good friend Tony Blair persuaded him that the Labour Party would have more chance of beating the Conservative Party if Blair became the leader. Brown claims a deal was struck, which in return for Brown's support Blair would resign as Prime Minister during a Labour Governments (one rumour says first while another rumour says second) term of office. Ever since the Labour Party won the 1997 General Election Gordon Brown has been brooding and seething wanting Blair to resign and allow himself to fulfil his destiny of becoming Prime Minister.

As we approach the tenth anniversary of Labours victory on 1st May, Blair is finally on the point of resigning. At last Brown could drop his sullen look and start to relax. But will at the last minute, the prize he has been waiting for be snatched from his grasp?

For the truth is Brown is not a winner. More importantly Labour Members of Parliament know he is not a winner- and to hold on to their own jobs at the next General Election, they need a Leader who can defeat David Cameron and the Conservative Party.

For months the Blairite faction of the Labour Party has been looking for an ABG (anyone but Gordon) candidate. But there isn’t an obvious strong candidate. So they were having to content themselves with Brown taking over from Blair during the summer. But, and there are lots of buts in this story, questions are now being asked over Browns competency as Chancellor of the Exchequer – is he responsible for the shortfall in funds in pension schemes? did he sell off half of the UK Gold Reserves cheaply? The image of the sound prudent “Iron Chancellor” is starting to crumble. And Labour Party MPs are starting to panic.

Is the young David Miliband, Secretary of State for Environment, Food & Rural Affairs the answer to their prays? Each night Labour MPs pray "please God anyone but Gordon".


My prediction:

• Gordon Brown will become leader of the Labour Party and Prime Minister.
• Due to the British “First past the Post” voting system and the anomalies in the way constituency boundaries are drawn up, the Conservative Party require far more than Labour of the popular vote to win a majority of seats. Consequently Labour will win the largest number of seats at the next General Election, but they might not get an overall majority. The Conservative Party will then win following General Election.
  
  

Happy New Year

2007 has the potential of being a significant year in history.

It doesn’t take a crystal ball to see, during the year the UK will get a new Prime Minister. Tony Blair will probably resign between May and July. And unless a totally unforeseen event occurs Gordon Brown will take over. Although he is seen as the natural successor, he has a number of challenges that might find him wanting.

Brown will have to establish himself as the Leader of New Labour. The Blairits are not going to welcome him with open arms. And to date he has shown himself to be not a team player. His normal, nay his only tactic is bullying, and if that fails sulking. Unless he can become a leader, his tenure will be short lived.

He will also have to establish a connection with the Electorate. Opinion polls indicate the British public see Brown as a dour grumpy Scotsman. Like Ted Heath before him, he is incapable of creating a sense of warmth and understanding. He might be able to win the minds of the electorate but fail to win their hearts.

All eyes will be on the Gordon Brown / David Cameron duel. It is there for Brown to win and Cameron to loose. By that I mean David Cameron has the advantage, as long as he doesn’t do anything stupid, he will be seen to be a charismatic leader, in contrast to Brown's coldness.

The Government will have two objectives to pass laws: to extending to 90 days the period the police can detain a suspect without charging them; and the compulsory carrying of Identification Cards. To achieve the latter, will require a shift in public opinion. This will be achieved by the explotation of fear. Muslims will continue to be demonised as a group to be feared. There will be high profile anti-terrorist exercises, possibly involving the closing or disruption of airports. And they will say:

“If we have ID cards, we would be so much safer, and there wouldn’t be these disruptions”.

If by the end of the year, opinion polls show a consistent swing towards the Conservative Party, New Labour might panic and call an early election - its better to win with a much reduced majority, than wait and loose power.

2007 will be seen as the key year for the Middle East. Either as the year a start was made to establish peace between Israel and its neighbours, or tragically as the year of missed opportunities when the region fell into a deeper state of chaos and aggression. The Civil War in Iraq will get bloodier with no sense of hope. Unfortunately Bush neither has the intellect nor the leadership qualities to influence events. The challenge for him will be either to find a way of withdrawing US troops, or diverting US public attention from the US troops death toll. To divert attention, US could increase the pressure on Iran.

Unfortunately in the USA efforts will not be directed at getting Bush to take leadership, rather politicians will be positioning themselves in preparation to the 2008 Presidential Elections.

In Europe, Russia will continue to flex its “power” muscles. It will use the threat of cutting off gas supplies to blackmail other Countries either to comply with its will or to turn a blind eye to its continued abuse of human rights.

In Asia, China and India will continue, at an accelerated rate, to expand their industrial and technical might. Tension will also increase between the two countries as the competition for energy resources intensifies.

On the sporting front. There will be two World Cups competitions. In September & October the Rugby World Cup will be held in France, which will be won by New Zealand, with Australia or South Africa as the loosing finalists. The ICC Cricket World Cup will be held in the West Indies in March / April. While Australia is the undisputed Champions of the 5 day Test Match game; it is not so dominant in the one day format. Chance plays its part in influencing the results of one day matches, so predicting the ultimate winner of the Cup is not easy. One thing is certain; England will not participate in the final.

Final prediction, it will be a long hot summer.
It will rain in London on Saturday 21st July and Sunday 12th August.

Political Parasites

So Tony Blair is spending the New Year in Bee Gees star Robin Gibb’s Florida mansion. He spends his summer holidays in Cliff Richard’s Barbados mansion. You must question his actions. But at the same time be sorry for him. He must have a perverted taste in music.

Does Blair have any sense of probity? He cadges holidays from has-been pop stars, and sells peerages to get money for the Labour party.

They “the Establishment” says the poor political parties have been forced to “bend” the law to get finances - it would be better if tax payers funded the parties. Let’s just think about this. The political parties, who do not care a toss about public opinion, now want us to finance them to ignore us. The measure of popularity of a party should be measured not only by the votes it gets at elections, but also by the number of people it attracts to become members. If a political party cannot gain sufficient support to finance its activities it doesn’t deserve to survive. And where does most of the money get spent? On advertising at General Elections. Cut out all the name calling at election time and save money.

Though if a law is past to finance political parties, it would be tempting to start the Grumpy and Farting Party (the GFP).

But who would want to become a member of a political party? Especially a party which has Hazel Blear as its Chairman ( I mean New Labour, not the Grumpy & Farting Party). Last week she was leading a protest at the planned closure of a hospital in her Salford constituency. What’s wrong with that you might ask? Surely it’s the duty of every MP to fight for the services provided in their constituency? Yes, but. Hazel Blear is a member of the Cabinet which took the decision to rationalize the National Health Service, which resulted in the planned closure. If Blear is opposed to the cuts, then she should on principle resign from the Government. But no, she will not do that, because she craves power. So why did she attend the protest and risk the wroth of Tony Blair? Simply, currently there are three Parliamentary constituencies in the Salford area. Under the reorganization of boundaries these will be reduced to two. So, poor Hazel is at risk of loosing here job. (Gloat, snigger). But Hazel is determined it will be one of the other two MPs who will be ousted.

Hazel ##### Blear, I can’t stand that woman. When she is interviewed she never answers any questions. During one programme she was determined the only message she wanted to get across was: to rubbish David Cameron, the leader of the Conservative Party.

Q: “Did the Prime Minister in his speech finally endorse Gordon Brown?”
HB: “Cameron is weak and never taken decisions”

Q: “Do you support Gordon Brown to be the next Leader?”
HB: “Cameron is weak and never taken decisions”


Q: “Are you going to stand for the post of Deputy Leader?”
HB: “Cameron is weak and never taken decisions”


Q: “ . . . . . . ?”
HB, “Cameron is weak, and never taken decisions”

And on and on.

Lets face it most people consider all politicians are a waste of space. Unless you are Cliff Richard or Robin Gibb, who are pleased to find space for their number one fan and his family.