Social Engineering

Yesterday the Communities Secretary Ruth Kelly published an action plan to work with Muslim communities to isolate, prevent and defeat violent extremism. A study by Durham University was published alongside the plan, which claims “the traditional leadership need a new approach to counter radicalisation and better connect with young people“.

The key points of the plan are:

• Strengthening leadership and governance in mosques.
• A framework of new standards for imams engaged by the state who will go into areas where individuals are susceptible to extremism such as prisons and universities.
• Helping communities build stronger civic and religious leadership.
• Rolling out good practice guidance nationally to encourage the teaching of citizenship in madrassahs and supplementary schools.
• £6 million of new allocations to around 70 local communities.

Obviously the Government is faced with a challenge of countering the radicalisation of young Muslims. But should this be done by the Government getting involved in social engineering? Is the involvement of the Government with an imam likely to increase or diminish his influence? The largest body the Muslim Council of Britain, has fallen out of favour, leading to claims that ministers are talking only to those prepared to agree with government.

Why are young Muslims susceptible to radical influence? Two factors:

• A sense of alienation with British society.
• British foreign policy, in the Middle East and Afghanistan.

These factors are equally likely to be felt by all sectors of society, but they aren’t likely to become suicide bombers. Actually there are other groups in British society which have caused more deaths than Islamic extremists.

Gun carrying Afro-Caribbean gangs
Drunk-drivers.

Why isn’t the Government paying equal attention to the Afro-Caribbean community? Is it because the deaths are mainly restricted to within the community? As for drunk-drivers, how many millions of pounds worth of “don’t drink and drive” campaigns have failed to prevent the slaughter on the roads?

The above argument is deliberately disjointed and lacking supporting evidence - just like the Governments latest plan.

East of Suez

Yesterday Tony Blair gave a speech on the role of the UK’s Armed Forces in the 21st century.
Our Nation’s Future - Defence

http://www.number-10.gov.uk/output/Page10735.asp

I quote one paragraph:

The frontiers of our security no longer stop at the Channel. What happens in the Middle East affects us. What happens in Pakistan; or Indonesia; or in the attenuated struggles for territory and supremacy in Africa for example, in Sudan or Somalia. The new frontiers for our security are global. Our Armed Forces will be deployed in the lands of other nations far from home, with no immediate threat to our territory, in environments and in ways unfamiliar to them.

Great Britain ceased being a true World Power 1941 when it required USA assistance to defeat Germany.

It emerged from World War 2 still thinking and trying to act as a World Power.

It took another ten years, and the failed attempt in 1956 to regain control of the Suez Canal and to topple Nasser, for the World to know Great Britain was no longer a World Power..

It took a further ten years, and the Labour Government of 1966 to drop the pretence of being a World Power. And the policy was put in place to by 1971 withdraw troops from East of Suez.

Subsequent Governments still tried to act, if not as a World Power, but certainly as a Country with influence on the World Stage. This pretence was supported by two props: the permanent seat and veto at the UN Security Council, and being a nuclear power.

For the next twenty years, irrespective of the public posturing, Governments knew their limitations and acted accordingly. There was a series of Defence Reviews, each resulting in the downsizing of the Armed Forces.

In 1997 New Labour won the General election, within a year Tony Blair had taken the Country into the first of five Wars.

At the start of 2007 Great Britain has troops on operational deployment in: Iraq, Afghanistan, Bosnia & Kosovo, Northern Ireland together with various UN missions. Blair is determined Britain should remain a nuclear power. But his latest speech is an attempt to roll back the years, and once again put on “The Emperors Cloths” of a World Power. We will once again try to influence events East of Suez. And to achieve this with a poorly paid, inadequately equipped, abysmally housed armed forces.

Blair, as one last desperate attempt to salvage his image and leave some heritage, has called for a great debate on Britain’s foreign policy. The big question is not Britain’s foreign policy but Blair’s powers of judgement?

Happy New Year

2007 has the potential of being a significant year in history.

It doesn’t take a crystal ball to see, during the year the UK will get a new Prime Minister. Tony Blair will probably resign between May and July. And unless a totally unforeseen event occurs Gordon Brown will take over. Although he is seen as the natural successor, he has a number of challenges that might find him wanting.

Brown will have to establish himself as the Leader of New Labour. The Blairits are not going to welcome him with open arms. And to date he has shown himself to be not a team player. His normal, nay his only tactic is bullying, and if that fails sulking. Unless he can become a leader, his tenure will be short lived.

He will also have to establish a connection with the Electorate. Opinion polls indicate the British public see Brown as a dour grumpy Scotsman. Like Ted Heath before him, he is incapable of creating a sense of warmth and understanding. He might be able to win the minds of the electorate but fail to win their hearts.

All eyes will be on the Gordon Brown / David Cameron duel. It is there for Brown to win and Cameron to loose. By that I mean David Cameron has the advantage, as long as he doesn’t do anything stupid, he will be seen to be a charismatic leader, in contrast to Brown's coldness.

The Government will have two objectives to pass laws: to extending to 90 days the period the police can detain a suspect without charging them; and the compulsory carrying of Identification Cards. To achieve the latter, will require a shift in public opinion. This will be achieved by the explotation of fear. Muslims will continue to be demonised as a group to be feared. There will be high profile anti-terrorist exercises, possibly involving the closing or disruption of airports. And they will say:

“If we have ID cards, we would be so much safer, and there wouldn’t be these disruptions”.

If by the end of the year, opinion polls show a consistent swing towards the Conservative Party, New Labour might panic and call an early election - its better to win with a much reduced majority, than wait and loose power.

2007 will be seen as the key year for the Middle East. Either as the year a start was made to establish peace between Israel and its neighbours, or tragically as the year of missed opportunities when the region fell into a deeper state of chaos and aggression. The Civil War in Iraq will get bloodier with no sense of hope. Unfortunately Bush neither has the intellect nor the leadership qualities to influence events. The challenge for him will be either to find a way of withdrawing US troops, or diverting US public attention from the US troops death toll. To divert attention, US could increase the pressure on Iran.

Unfortunately in the USA efforts will not be directed at getting Bush to take leadership, rather politicians will be positioning themselves in preparation to the 2008 Presidential Elections.

In Europe, Russia will continue to flex its “power” muscles. It will use the threat of cutting off gas supplies to blackmail other Countries either to comply with its will or to turn a blind eye to its continued abuse of human rights.

In Asia, China and India will continue, at an accelerated rate, to expand their industrial and technical might. Tension will also increase between the two countries as the competition for energy resources intensifies.

On the sporting front. There will be two World Cups competitions. In September & October the Rugby World Cup will be held in France, which will be won by New Zealand, with Australia or South Africa as the loosing finalists. The ICC Cricket World Cup will be held in the West Indies in March / April. While Australia is the undisputed Champions of the 5 day Test Match game; it is not so dominant in the one day format. Chance plays its part in influencing the results of one day matches, so predicting the ultimate winner of the Cup is not easy. One thing is certain; England will not participate in the final.

Final prediction, it will be a long hot summer.
It will rain in London on Saturday 21st July and Sunday 12th August.